With potential for an East and Gulf Coast ports’ strike and also for an uptick in tariffs on goods entering the country, United States-bound imports are expected to remain high through the spring, according to the new edition of the Port Tracker report, which was issued today by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and maritime consultancy Hackett Associates.
The ports surveyed in the report include: Los Angeles/Long Beach; Oakland; Tacoma; Seattle; Houston; New York/New Jersey; Hampton Roads; Charleston, and Savannah; Miami; Jacksonville; and Fort Lauderdale, Fla.-based Port Everglades.
Authors of the report explained that cargo import numbers do not correlate directly with retail sales or employment because they count only the number of cargo containers brought into the country, not the value of the merchandise inside them, adding that the amount of merchandise imported provides a rough barometer of retailers’ expectations.
“Either a strike or new tariffs would be a blow to the economy and retailers are doing what they can to avoid the impact of either for as long as they can,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “We hope that both can be avoided, but bringing in cargo early is a prudent step to mitigate the impact on our industry, consumers and the nation’s economy. We call on both parties at the ports to return to the table, get a deal done and avoid a strike. And we call on the incoming administration to use tariffs in a strategic manner rather than a broad-based approach impacting everyday consumer goods.”
For October, the most recent month for which data is available, United States imports came in at 2.25 million TEU (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units)—which does not include final data from the Port of Miami—was down 1.2% from September and up 9.3% annually.
Port Tracker issued projections for November and the subsequent months, including:
November, at 2.17 million TEU, up 14.4% annually;
- December, at 2.14 million TEU, for a 14.3% annual decrease, which would slot total 2024 volume at 25.6 million TEU, for a 14.8% annual gain (the report said that prior to the brief October port strike and the election in November, November had been forecasted at 1.91 million TEU and December at 1.88 million TEU, with 2024 at 24.9 million TEU);
- January at 2.2 million TEU, for a 2.5% annual increase;
- February, at 1.87 million TEU, for a 4.1% annual decrease, due to fluctuations related to the timing of Lunar New Year shutdowns at Asian factories;
- March, at 2.17 million TEU, for a 12.7% annual increase; and
- April, at 2.15 million TEU, for a 6.6% annual increase
Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett viewed the current challenges as akin to “trying to see through a dense fog,” given the still-strong import volumes, amid what he called signs of an impending slowdown.
“The International Longshoremen’s Association’s labor negotiations at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports are due to resume January 15 but prospects of reaching a quick agreement on the key sticking point of automation are not looking good,” wrote Hackett. “The window to frontload goods on vessels arriving before a potential strike is quickly closing. Then there are issues as President-elect Trump promises to increase tariffs when he takes office. It is not clear whether this will actually take effect immediately or whether it will take time to implement the tariffs, but shippers are moving up as much cargo as the can before then. In addition to worldwide tariffs, he is threatening tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada, which could become messy since they are in a free trade agreement with the United States.”
