Market Overview: NASDAQ 100 Emini Futures
The NASDAQ Emini futures September monthly candlestick is another bull doji bar with a long tail below. The August bad H1 buy signal triggered, and the market closed just below the August high.
The week is a bear doji bar with a bigger tail below. It pulled back below last week representing the end of the 2nd leg up since August.
The last monthly report had explained how September month is likely to be within the current quarterly bar since the quarterly bar is really big. September met that expectation.
The Q3 quarterly bar ended as an outside doji bar with a small bull body closing in the upper half of the bar, just above the prior quarter close. The commentary in the last monthly report around the possibilities for the next quarter given this close are still valid.
Bears want this to be the highest quarterly close of the year. They want next quarter to close below this close. They want a sideways move for the next several quarters that allows them to start a leg downwards.
Bulls want the opposite. They want next quarter to be a big bull bar.
The prior 3 bars on the quarterly chart are strong enough that there will likely be a close above this quarter’s close, even if next quarter does not close above this quarter close.
The yearly chart on the other hand is an entry bar to a large inside buy signal bar of 2023. Traders trading the yearly chart are not likely to take such a big risk buying above 2023 with a stop below 2022 low. This is the reasoning to make the claim that the upside is limited on the yearly chart.
I have inset in the monthly chart below, a portion of the quarterly chart from Q4 2018 to Q1 2020 and the yearly chart side by side because there are similarities in the structure of the price-action and could show what is in store for the yearly chart for the next few years.
The Oct 2018 bear bar in the Quarterly chart is like the 2022 yearly bear bar. The next bull bar is a big inside bull bar, which would be like the 2023 bull bar. The entry bar on the quarterly chart represented by the Q2 2019 bar is a smaller bar compared to 2024 which is a much bigger bull bar so far. The Q3 2019 quarterly follow-through bar is a doji bar. This could represent the upcoming year 2025 on the yearly chart.
The market is essentially in breakout mode on that quarterly chart at the end of Q3 2019, not far from the high of the first bear bar. Bears want a bear bar next, while bulls want a bull breakout bar. Bulls get their breakout bar in Q4 2019. But then the next bar Q1 2020 is a big outside down bear bar with a tail above and below.
In the quarterly chart, the entry bar and follow-through bar are bad because they are small/doji bars. So far 2024, the entry bar, is a bull trend bar, with a prominent tail above. So if 2024 is to be a bad entry bar, it will need to have a bigger tail above.
What if 2024 instead ends up closing on its high? Bears that sold the high of 2022 bear bar, will likely sell more at the 2024 close and try to exit breakeven. If 2025 also ends up as a bull trend bar, then there will be a temporary support area around the close of 2024.
NASDAQ 100 Emini futures
The Monthly NASDAQ chart
- The September month bar is a bull doji bar with big tail below.
- The market reversed around the midpoint of the tail below of the August bar and triggered the August bad H1 buy signal bar.
- Given the micro-double bottom, it is likely the market will go higher to see where the sellers come in.
- As mentioned in prior reports, tails on the July and August months represents trading range. Since we already visited the August tail in September, it is likely the market will next explore the upper tail of July to see where the sellers come in. It should go at least to the midpoint of the upper tail of July if not above the July high.
- Next month could be a doji bar the other way around, with a bigger tail above.
The Weekly NASDAQ chart
- The week is a doji bar with a tail reversing from prior week low.
- It is a pullback below last week’s low and signifies the end of the 2nd leg up since the move up from August low started.
- The 2nd leg is strong enough that there will likely be a third leg even if it’s one bar.
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