While the potential East and Gulf Coast ports’ work stoppage will not come to fruition later this month, as was widely expected, the other major supply chain issue heading into 2025, potential tariff hikes, are continuing to drive an ongoing surge of United States-bound imports, according to the new edition of the Port Tracker report, which was issued today by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and maritime consultancy Hackett Associates.
The ports surveyed in the report include: Los Angeles/Long Beach; Oakland; Tacoma; Seattle; Houston; New York/New Jersey; Hampton Roads; Charleston, and Savannah; Miami; Jacksonville; and Fort Lauderdale, Fla.-based Port Everglades.
Authors of the report explained that cargo import numbers do not correlate directly with retail sales or employment because they count only the number of cargo containers brought into the country, not the value of the merchandise inside them, adding that the amount of merchandise imported provides a rough barometer of retailers’ expectations.
This report was issued soon after the International Longshoremen’s Association and the U.S. Maritime Alliance came to terms for a tentative agreement on a new six-year Master Contract. This followed a brief strike in early October, which was followed by a temporary contract extension that was set to expire on January 15, but the parties came to terms on a new agreement earlier this week, avoiding a work stoppage, which industry observers said would have disrupted both global and domestic supply chains. Port workers are will remain on the job until the new deal is ratified.
“The new contract brings certainty and avoids disruptions, and we hope to see it ratified as soon as possible,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “But the agreement came at the last minute, and retailers were already bringing in spring merchandise early to ensure that they would be well-stocked to serve their customers in case of another disruption, resulting in higher imports. The surge in imports has also been driven by President-elect Trump’s plan to increase tariffs because retailers want to avoid higher costs that will eventually be paid by consumers. The long-term impact on imports remains to be seen.”
For November, the most recent month for which data is available, United States imports came in at 2.17 million TEU (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units)—which does not include final data from the the Ports of New York and New Jersey—was down 3.2% from October and up 14.7% annually.
Port Tracker issued projections for December and the subsequent months, including:
- December, at 2.24 million TEU, for a 19.2% annual decrease, which would slot total 2024 volume at 25.6 million TEU, for a 15.2% annual gain (the report said that before the October port contract extension and the 2024 elections, November had been forecast at 1.91 million TEU and December at 1.88 million TEU, while the total for 2024 was forecast at 24.9 million TEU;
- January at 2.16 million TEU, for a 2.5% annual increase;
- February, at 1.87 million TEU, for a 4.5% annual decrease, due to Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in China);
- March, at 2.13 million TEU, for a 10.6% annual increase;
- April, at 2.18 million TEU, for an 8% annual increase; and
- May, at 2.2 million TEU, for a 5.9% annual increase
Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett wrote in the report that while the strike has been averted, impacts of its potential remain intact.
“Importers had already front-loaded cargo in anticipation of delays, giving a boost to imports in December and early January,” noted Hackett. “This comes as notices from carriers show several ‘blanked’ sailings, suggesting that February and early March will see a drop in import volumes to both the East and West Coasts due to Lunar New Year factory shutdowns, primarily in China.”
