United States-bound import growth was again positive in November, according to recent data issued by S&P Global Market Intelligence.
November imports, at 2.72 million TEU (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units), increased 12.3% annually, growing for the 15th consecutive month. Sequentially, imports were off 2.5% compared to October. On a year-to-date basis through November, total imports, at 29.59 million TEU are up 11.9% annually and in line with the 30.39 million TEU recorded for the same period in 2021.
The firm observed that while 2023 represented a “soft comparison,” due to earlier restocking by retailers and manufacturers, November shipments increased 21.0% compared to pre-pandemic 2019.
S&P reported consumer durables and semi-durables’ imports seeing a 14.1% increase, in tandem with retailers reporting strong Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales. Apparel saw the sharpest increase, up 20.4%, with consumer products well behind, at 5.1%. Leisure products rose 13.7%, due to increased sales of toys and festive decorations, it added. Autos eked out a 0.7% increase, while capital goods increased by 2.7%, and electrical equipment was off 8.9% (but 34.7% ahead of 2019). IT imports were up 12.9% annually and up 7.0% compared to 2019.
S&P Global Market Research Director Chris Rogers said in an interview that November was very much kind of a continuation of the trends being seen through most of the year so far.
“Obviously, on a year-over-year basis, as most of the year we’ve been comparing to a period of inventory de-stocking,” said Rogers. “November was kind of when we’d come out of the other side of that last year, so you can see it as a genuinely good month. Obviously, there was a pick- up in growth versus October, because October had three days of a port strike in it. November probably also benefited from a little bit of stuff that got delayed because of the strike getting unloaded. There’s probably a little bit of a boost to that.”
Looking at imports for individual sectors, Rogers likened it to patterns having been previously seen, with a strong recovery in consumer durable goods, like home furnishings and appliances and toys and fitness equipment, which were all up more than 10%. And there were also a couple of weaker areas around capital goods, like machinery, which had a strong 2023, as a lot of the Biden administration’s infrastructure spending came into play.
“Things are basically back to where they were in 2021; you can almost think about it as a return to trend,” said Rogers. “I wouldn’t say normal, because if we take a look ahead a little bit into the New Year, clearly, we have the rough strokes of what to expect. We can expect tariffs, once President-elect Trump is inaugurated, and we can expect a port strike in mid-January. For our forecasts, we do expect to see continued growth in certainly until January. I think it’s worth bearing in mind that if we do see tariffs implemented by the Trump, those won’t necessarily come into play straight away.”
Depending on the timing of when new tariffs will take effect, Rogers said that U.S.-bound import containers are likely to be up by as much as 10% in the first quarter of 2025. And for all of 2025, assuming there are more tariffs levied on China and other nations, and not Mexico and Canada, he said total U.S.-bound import levels could be down by 4%-to-5%.
