Among three respected crypto-positive experts—Cathie Wood (CEO of Ark Invest), Jurrien Timmer (director of global macro at Fidelity Investments) and Tom Lee (head of research at FundStrat)—the outlook on BTC remains bullish, with the expected corrections and crashes along the way, of course. Here’s what they have to say about the possible short-, medium- and long-term price of bitcoin.
- Tom Lee sees BTC at $250,000 by the end of 2025. Lee was right about BTC touching $100,000 in 2024.
- Cathie Wood sees BTC at $600,000 (base case) or $1.5 million (bull case) by 2030. Wood stated this in January 2024—when bitcoin was under $50,000 and the first U.S.-based spot BTC ETF had just been approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). She reiterated this view in mid-November 2024.
- Jurrien Timmer suggests BTC could reach $200,000 to $250,000 in the next five years or so. His valuation model assumes that bitcoin’s market cap will rise to at least a quarter of gold’s.
Factors that could positively (or negatively) affect bitcoin in 2025
Here’s what to watch for in the new year:
Liquidity in Canada and the U.S.
Looser monetary policy (meaning lower interest rates) is positive for higher BTC prices. While Canada has already significantly cut interest rates, the more important cuts for bitcoin are those by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed started rate cuts in September 2024, with three cuts so far. The latest cut of 25 basis points was on Dec. 19, 2024. If U.S. rates fall further in 2025, the price of BTC could continue to rise.
On the other hand, if inflationary pressures spike in 2025 and rate cuts are halted for a prolonged period—or if rate cuts are lower and slower than the market expects—then the BTC rally could take a breather. This is a real possibility. In its Dec. 19 announcement, the Fed took a more hawkish stance on rates than it had earlier in 2024—warning that inflation could rise again in 2025.
Trump presidency
Donald Trump ran his presidential election campaign on a crypto-friendly platform. He spoke about enacting crypto-friendly regulation to grow the industry, rather than stifle it. This has been even more pronounced since he’s had pro-crypto Elon Musk at his side. So much so that the Department of Government Efficiency, a proposed advisory body to be led by Musk and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, shortens to DOGE—a well-known memecoin that Musk has publicly supported for years.
While a Trump government may want to support crypto, it will no doubt have to address the rampant illegal activity and scams that plague the space. How they approach this will contribute to the health and the future trajectory of the crypto market.
New SEC chair
One of the world’s most important regulatory positions for crypto is that of SEC chairperson. Until January 2025, it’s Gary Gensler, who has been tough on alternative coins (a.k.a. altcoins, or all coins apart from bitcoin) because he sees them as securities, and therefore as being regulated under existing securities laws. While this approach, it could be argued, is good for investor protection, it has also stifled innovation in the crypto industry.
Trump’s SEC chair nominee is Paul Atkins—a former SEC commissioner with a positive outlook on crypto. The growth of the crypto industry depends a great deal on Atkins’ regulatory approach to it.